Portuguese NPL Market - December 2023
This newsletter provides insights into the current state of the NPL market in Portugal (2023)
•Total non-financial indebtedness has already increased up to September 23 by 1.7% to 812 billion €, with the public sector increased at 4.3%, 365 billion. Household debt (Housing + consumption) is stable or slightly increased at 150 billion €, and the private sector is at 296 billion €. As GDP growth in terms of volume, 260 billion €, the percentage of debt relative to GDP has decreased.
•We foresee a slight increase in NPL related to corporate, housing, and consumption. However, banks are well-prepared for any sudden increases in NPL.
•Households: 75% are owners of their own house and car and 45% have debt. 70% have ages between 35-54.
•SMEs: 66% of the corporate debt it’s from SME´s (182 billion), slight increased, being 40% of this debt from Micro companies.
•All main Portuguese banks have an NPL ratio below the 5% target and the total credit at risk is 9.690,6M€ | Liquid: 4.200M€.
•“Saturn” Portfolio of CGD closed by LX Partners with a BV of 600M. There are currently 4 ongoing portfolios valued at 4.6 billion €.
•There has been a decrease in 6 and 12-month Euribor rates, to 3.95% (-25 bp since its recent max on September 23) and 3.79% (-40 bp as its recent max on September 23), respectively. The gap between the 3 and 12-month Euribor rates is narrowing, at -0.17% vs. 0.45% as of May 23.
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